Assessing the Potential Rural Impact of Plant Disease

Project Status: Completed
Type of Project: Research Project
Principal Investigator: Professor Peter Mills, University of Warwick (Email)
Website

Publications, Data and Other Outputs
Policy and Practice Note
Policy and Practice Note

Objectives

The aim of this project is to develop a critical, inter-disciplinary appraisal of the potential impacts of plant diseases (food and non-food) on land use and the UK rural economy.

UK crop production is vulnerable to the introduction of plant diseases that directly affect crop yields, disrupt the food chain and impact on land use and social infrastructure, whilst diseases of non-food plants perturb our natural environment.
Modern farming is heavily influenced by science and technology. Recent sociological conceptions of 'risk society' argue that we are now faced with 'manufactured risks' created by our use of technology and knowledge on the natural world. Until now, a detailed survey of current and future risks posed by crop diseases to land use and the rural economy has not been conducted.

This will be achieved through integration of research on plant diseases and the rural economy by creation of a Centre for Interdisciplinary Research on Plant Disease and the Rural Economy. The likely occurrence of a catastrophic plant disease outbreak in major UK crops over the next 10-15 years and the macro and micro economic impact of disease epidemics for both crop and non-crop species will be assessed. A total of six fully integrated work packages will be used to meet the projects objectives. Outputs will include;

a) Development of a conceptual framework for the analysis of plant diseases and risk management, including a detailed review and history of plant disease epidemics in the UK and beyond, creation of appropriate UK crop maps, assessment of macro economic impacts, establishment of disease typologies (food/non food crop, trade versus natural spread) and an overall conceptual framework for risk management and governance;

b) A forecast of the risk and potential impacts of food and non-food plant diseases on land use and the UK rural economy;

c) Identification of the routes and network nodes of transmission and epidemic foci of specific food and non-food plant diseases through trade dissemination and natural transmission

d ) An assessment of the environmental and socio-economic impacts of specific food and non-food plant diseases on selected rural communities in the UK;

e) Provision of an overall evaluation and a generic framework for taking a holistic approach to risk analysis, regulation and governance in relation to catastrophic plant disease epidemics; and

f) Dissemination of the findings using novel and traditional channels.

The research will be carried out by staff within the new centre based at the University of Warwick, Imperial College, Coventry University and the Central Science laboratory.